Norwegian Climate Prediction Model
The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) is aiming at providing prediction from seasonal-to-decadal time scale. It is based on the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM, ) and the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF, ) data assimilation method. NorESM is a state of the art Earth system model that is based on CESM (), but uses different aerosol/chemistry scheme and ocean model (evolved from MICOM). The EnKF is a sequential data assimilation method that allows for fully multivariate and flow dependent correct using a covariance matrix procuded by a Monte-Carlo ensemble integration. Currently the system only intend to update the ocean part as this is where most of the predictability is expected, but additional atmospheric nudging and assimilation of land variables are also considered.
- 1 News
- 2 Model releases
- 3 Prediction activities
- 4 Existing runs
- 5 Projects using NorCPM
- 6 Publications, etc.
- 7 User Resources
- 8 Working group
- 9 Contact informations
The optimal goal is to test the capability of our system on disparate phase of the climate in order to gain confidence on the robustnes of its accuracy. SST is the only observational data set available for a period of time sufficient (> 100 years) to clearly demonstrate skill for decadal prediction. Ideally a start date every 5 years seems achievable.
Model-model prediction with assimilation of synthetic SST data
Evaluation of prediction hindcast simulations with real SST data
The observational data set used so far is the ensemble of SST data (refereed as HADISST2), which provide monthly SST for 1850--2007 with 10 members. Each member reconstructs SST using a different set of possible unknown parameters. At term we intend to perform retrospective reanalysis and decadal prediction (hindcast) over the last century, but here we have decided to focus on a shorter period (1980-2005) because the system is still premature and there are many independent observations during this period of time.
Following is a table that summarise the different experiment run so far:
|Name on Norstore||NorESM version||observation||ens size||Freq assim||full_field/anom||ocean var updated||post process||Masked coast||localisation||Atmo nudging||Prediction||Finished/Ongoing||Remark|
|First_Try||F19_tn21||SST||30||monthly||anom||all||fixenkf||yes||point||no||1990,1992,1995,1996||Finished||minor bug in EnKF, small drift in MSL, good SPG|
|Second_Try||F19_tn21||SST||30||monthly||anom||all||fixenkf||yes||point||no||1995||Finished||small drift in MSL, good SPG|
|Third_Try||F19_tn21||SST||30||monthly||anom||T and S||fixenkf||yes||point||no||none||Finished||weak SPG in reanalysis|
|Fourth_Try||F19_tn21||SST||30||monthly||anom||T and S and Barot.||micomserial||yes||point||no||none||Finished||unrealistic|
|Fifth_Try||F19_tn21||SST||30||monthly||anom||all||micom_serial||yes||point||no||1995||Finished||very mild improvement compare to second|
|FF_ini_try||F19_tn21||SST||30||monthly||full||all||micom_serial||yes||point||no||April and November prediction from 1981 to 2007||Finished||??|
Projects using NorCPM
EPOCASA, PREFACE, INCREASE, PARADIGM, STERCP, ARCPATH
- Counillon, F., Bethke, I., Keenlyside, N., Bentsen, M., Bertino, L., & Zheng, F. (2014). Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with the ensemble Kalman filter and the Norwegian Earth System Model: a twin experiment. Tellus A, 66. doi:10.3402/tellusa.v66.21074
- NorCPM talk at the joint MiKlip/Specs meeting in Offenbach 24.-25. Feb 2015 (pdf)
Noel.Keenlyside@gfi.uib.no (leader); firstname.lastname@example.org (NorESM related question); email@example.com (EnKF related question); firstname.lastname@example.org (atmospheric nudging related question)