Norwegian Climate Prediction Model

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The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) is aiming at providing prediction from seasonal-to-decadal time scale. It is based on the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM, [1]) and the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF, [2]) data assimilation method. NorESM is a state of the art Earth system model that is based on CESM ([3]), but uses different aerosol/chemistry scheme and ocean model (evolved from MICOM). The EnKF is a sequential data assimilation method that allows for fully multivariate and flow dependent correct using a covariance matrix procuded by a Monte-Carlo ensemble integration. Currently the system only intend to update the ocean part as this is where most of the predictability is expected, but additional atmospheric nudging and assimilation of land variables are also considered.

News

Model releases

Prediction activities

The optimal goal is to test the capability of our system on disparate phase of the climate in order to gain confidence on the robustnes of its accuracy. SST is the only observational data set available for a period of time sufficient (> 100 years) to clearly demonstrate skill for decadal prediction. Ideally a start date every 5 years seems achievable.


Model-model prediction with assimilation of synthetic SST data

Evaluation of prediction hindcast simulations with real SST data

The observational data set used so far is the ensemble of SST data (refereed as HADISST2), which provide monthly SST for 1850--2007 with 10 members. Each member reconstructs SST using a different set of possible unknown parameters. At term we intend to perform retrospective reanalysis and decadal prediction (hindcast) over the last century, but here we have decided to focus on a shorter period (1980-2005) because the system is still premature and there are many independent observations during this period of time.

Existing runs

Following is a table that summarise the different experiment run so far:

Multiplication table
Name on Norstore NorESM version observation ens size Freq assim full_field/anom ocean var updated post process Masked coast localisation Atmo nudging Prediction Finished/Ongoing Remark
First_Try F19_tn21 SST 30 monthly anom all fixenkf yes point no 1990,1992,1995,1996 Finished minor bug in EnKF, small drift in MSL, good SPG
Second_Try F19_tn21 SST 30 monthly anom all fixenkf yes point no 1995 Finished small drift in MSL, good SPG
Third_Try F19_tn21 SST 30 monthly anom T and S fixenkf yes point no none Finished weak SPG in reanalysis
Fourth_Try F19_tn21 SST 30 monthly anom T and S and Barot. micomserial yes point no none Finished unrealistic
Fifth_Try F19_tn21 SST 30 monthly anom all micom_serial yes point no 1995 Finished very mild improvement compare to second
ME F19_G16 SST 30 monthly anom all micom_serial yes point no no ongoing  ??
Yiguo_try F19_tn21 SST 30 monthly anom All(superlayer) micom_serial yes point no no ongoing  ??
FF_ini_try F19_tn21 SST 30 monthly full all micom_serial yes point no April and November prediction from 1981 to 2007 Finished  ??


Projects using NorCPM

Current

EPOCASA, PREFACE, INCREASE, PARADIGM, STERCP, ARCPATH

Past

PRACTICE

Publications, etc.

Peer-review

Presentations

  • NorCPM talk at the joint MiKlip/Specs meeting in Offenbach 24.-25. Feb 2015 (pdf)

User Resources


Working group

Contact informations

Noel.Keenlyside@gfi.uib.no (leader); ingo.bethke@uni.no (NorESM related question); francois.counillon@nersc.no (EnKF related question); maolin.shen@gfi.uib.no (atmospheric nudging related question)